[7 min read, open as open as pdf]
Year to date performance The dispersion between styles and segments within equities is pronounced in the UK. Given recent market stress over the prospect of a rising interest rate environment, inflationary pressure, and geopolitical tensions, year-to-date performance underscores the relative resilience of equities with a Value/Income bias relative to other UK equity segments and world equities. Year to date, world equities are down -5.93%, the FTSE All Share is flat at -0.55%. UK Small Caps are down -8.49%, the FTSE 100 is +1.14% and UK Equity Income (Freedom Smart-Beta UK Dividend Index) is +3.97%. This is because returns are underpinned by dividend income as well as exposure to energy and financials which benefit respectively from a high oil price/rising rate environment. Read in full as pdf [7 min read, open as pdf]
What happened this week Equity market performance has taken a tumble, speculative assets have taken a fall. Why is this, and what has changed? We explore the three market risks and the fourth geopolitical risks - the probability of each has increased materially and simultaneously. Read full report as pdf [5 min read, open as pdf]
A great technology, an inappropriate asset In discussions with financial advisers, our position has consistently been that whilst blockchain is undoubtedly a breakthrough technology, Bitcoin is not an appropriate asset for retail investors’ portfolios. Read the full report in pdf [3 min read, open as pdf]
Through the looking glass: a curiouser new paradigm Traditionally you bought bonds for income, and equity for risk. Ironically, now it’s the other way round. Read the full article Watch the CPD webinar: Diversifying income risk Find out more [3 min read, open as pdf]
2021 in review Our 2021 market roundup summarises another strong year for markets in almost all asset classes except for Bonds which remain under pressure as interest rates are expected to rise and inflation ticks up. Listed private equity (shares in private equity managers) performed best at +43.08%yy in GBP terms. US was the best performing region at +30.06%. Real asset exposures, such as Water, Commodities and Timber continued to rally in face of rising inflation risk, returning +32.81%, +28.22% and +17.66% respectively. 2022 outlook We are continuing in this “curiouser, through-the-looking glass” world. Traditionally you bought bonds for income, and equity for risk. Now it’s the other way round. Only equities provide income yields that have the potential to keep ahead of inflation. Bonds carry increasing risk of loss in real terms as inflation and interest rates rise. Real yields, which are bond yields less the inflation rate, are negative making traditional Bonds which aren’t linked to inflation highly unattractive. Bonds that are linked to inflation are highly sensitive to rising interest rates (called duration risk), so are not attractive either. How to navigate markets in this context? The big three themes for the year ahead are, in our view:
See full report in pdf Attend our 2022 Outlook webinar [3 min read, open pdf for full report with charts]
Inflation on the rise With inflation on the rise – and potentially interest rates too – nominal bonds are likely to remain under pressure. Whilst “real assets” – such as property, infrastructure and gold – have potential to preserve value in inflationary regimes, how can a switch from bonds to real assets be made without materially up-risking portfolios? This was the challenge we addressed in the design of our Liquid Real Assets index. Our Liquid Real Assets Index was developed to combine exposure to higher risk-return real asset exposures, with lower risk-return interest rate-sensitive assets, to deliver a real asset return exposure for inflation protection, in liquid format, with bond-like volatility to keep risk budgets in check. Given the rising inflationary pressures both in the US and in the UK, we take stock on the index performance year-to-date and are glad to say it’s “doing what it says on the tin. Find out more about the Elston Liquid Real Assets Index Watch the introductory webinar View the year-end index factsheet [5 min read, open as pdf]
Interest rates expected to rise As the run up in inflation looks more persistent, than transitory, there is growing likelihood that Central Banks will raise interest rates in response. Following an extended “lower for longer” near-Zero Interest Rate Policy following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID Crisis, the market futures-implied expectations for the Fed Funds rate, points to a “take off” in 2022 in response to rising inflation, following COVID-related policy support, to an expected 1.01% interest rate level in Dec-23[1], from 0.88% last quarter. Fig.1. Fed Funds Rate and implied expectations Source: Elston research, Bloomberg data
The potential for increased interest rate volatility, as rate hike expectations increase, means that investors that are seeking to dampen interest rate sensitivity (“duration”) are allocating to shorter-duration exposures, such as ultrashort-duration bonds, and also to Floating Rate Notes (FRNs). What is a Floating Rate Note? Floating Rate Notes receive interest payments that are directly linked to changes in near-term interest rates and can therefore provide a degree of protection against interest rate risk, when interest rates are rising. Issued for the most part by corporations, FRNs pay a periodic coupon – typically quarterly – that resets periodically in line with short-term interest rates. This could be expressed as a premium or “spread” over a currency’s short-term risk-free rate, such as (in the UK) the 3 month SONIA rate (Sterling Overnight Index Average, and prior to that GBP LIBOR) in the UK, or (in the US) the 3 month SOFR (Secured Overnight Funding Rate, and prior to that USD LIBOR). These indices overnight borrowing rates between financial institutions. The size of the premium or spread reflects the creditworthiness of the issuer: the higher the spread, the greater the rewarded risk for owning that security, and typically stays the same for the life of the bond and is based on the issuer’s credit risk as deemed by the market. How can FRNs benefit investors? Floating Rate Notes are a lower-risk way of putting cash to work and provide a useful direct hedge against interest rate fluctuations. When incorporated into a bond portfolio, they can help bring down duration given their reduced sensitivity to interest rate changes, as well as provide a return pattern that is directly and positively correlated with changes in interest rates. Compared to nominal bonds, such as Corporate Bonds and UK Gilts, FRNs’ yield can increase as/when interest rates increase. Relative to money market funds, FRNs may provide some additional yield pick-up, as well as very short <1 year duration. Key considerations when investing in FRNs Portfolio investors can access FRNs through funds and ETFs. Key considerations when investing in FRNs include, but are not limited to:
Summary The expected timing of interest rate “lift off” in the US and UK will change as markets adapt to evolving growth and inflation outlook during the post-COVID recovery, and in response to the risk of further disruption from new virus variants. However, as interest rate rises become more likely, and incorporating an allocation to Floating Rate Notes for protection against interest rate risk makes sense within the bond allocation. Watch the CPD Webinar: The Quest for Yield [1] Data as at last quarter end [3 min read, open as pdf]
Ahead of estimates UK CPI print for October came in at 4.2%yy vs 3.9% estimate and 3.1%yy in September. Inflation rates were higher than expected and the highest in a decade, putting more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and creating a palpable squeeze on cost of living for households through the winter. The increase was driven by energy prices and the impact of supply shortages across the economy. Register for the webinar/View the replay Read the full article
What is the 60/40 portfolio? Trying to find the very first mention of a 60/40 portfolio is a challenge, but it links back to Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory and was for many years seen as close to the optimal allocation between [US] equities and [US] bonds. Harry Markowitz himself when considering a “heuristic” rule of thumb talked of a 50/50 portfolio. But the notional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio has been a long-standing proxy for a balanced mandate, combining higher-risk-return growth assets with lower-risk-return income-generating assets. What’s in a 60/40? Obviously the nature of the equity and the nature of the bonds depend on the investor. US investors look at 60% US equities/40% US treasuries. Global investors might look at 60% Global Equities/40% Global Bonds. For UK investors – and our Elston 60/40 GBP Index – we look at 60% predominantly Global Equities and 40% predominantly UK bonds Why does it matter? In the same way as a Global Equities index is a useful benchmark for a “do-nothing” stock picker, the 60/40 portfolio is a useful benchmark for a “do-nothing” multi-asset investor. Multi-asset investors, with all their detailed decision making around asset allocation, risk management, hedging overlays and implementation options either do better than, or worse than this straightforward “do-nothing” approach of a regularly rebalanced 60/40 portfolio. Indeed – its simplicity is part of its appeal that enables investors to access a simple multi-asset strategy at low cost. The problem with bonds (the ‘40’) in an inflationary environment Over the years, the relationship between asset classes has changed so much that the validity of 60/40 as a strategy can legitimately be questioned. Read the full article or register for the webinar/View the replay
The era of quantitative easing programmes have had a distorting effect on markets since the 2008 financial crisis has given value investors a torrid time in the past decade. The near-constant sugar-rush of liquidity has served to de-link valuations from underlying fundamentals prompting a huge bias towards growth. While pockets of investors have been braced for a long-expected correction that has never really materialised, the recent sharp increase in inflation may constitute an inflection point of sorts. In inflationary periods and when interest rates rise, the time horizon for future discounting shrinks, leaving equities exposed. Income-yielding shares have an inherent value-bias, owing to the types of company that pay steady dependable dividend). This provides a measure of inflation protection both in absolute terms and relative to nominal bonds. Read the full article Watch the webinar [Open full article as pdf]
“Suppose we define a passive investor as anyone whose portfolio of U.S. equities is the cap-weight market portfolio described above. Likewise, define an active investor as anyone whose portfolio of U.S. equities is the not the cap-weight market portfolio. It is nevertheless true that the aggregate portfolio of active investors (with each investor's portfolio weighted by that investor's share of the total value of the U.S. equities held by active investors) has to be the market portfolio. Since the aggregate portfolio of all investors (active plus passive) is the market portfolio and the aggregate for all passive investors is the market portfolio, the aggregate for all active investors must be the market portfolio. All this is obvious. It is just the arithmetic of the fact that all U.S. equities are always held by investors. Its implications, however, are often overlooked.” What Bill Sharpe was saying to us was this: the performance of all active managers is, in aggregate [for a given asset class] that of the index less active fees. Which is a considerably worse deal than the charge often levelled against passive funds, namely that investors are paying for the performance of the index less passive fees. CPD Webinar: Is active management a zero-sum game? [Open as pdf]
Money market funds, and their exchange-traded equivalents “ultra-short duration bond funds”, are an important, if unglamorous, tool in portfolio manager’s toolkit. They can be used in place of a cash holding for additional yield, without compromising on risk, liquidity or cost. Money market funds are intended to preserve capital and provide returns similar to those available on the wholesale money markets (e.g. the SONIA rate that replace LIBOR). How risky is a money market fund? Money market-type funds hold near-to maturity investment grade paper. Their weighted average term to maturity is <1 year. They therefore have very low effective duration (the sensitivity to changes in interest rates). Compare gilts which are seen as a low-risk asset relative to equities. The 10-11 year duration on UK gilts (all maturities) means they carry a higher level volatility compared to cash (which has nil volatility). On the flip side, their longer term also means they have higher risk-return potential relative to cash and ultra-short bonds. By contrast, money market type funds have some investment risk as they hold non-cash assets, but given their holdings’ investment grade status, short term to maturity and ultra-short effective duration, they exhibit near-nil volatility. Platform cash, fixed term deposit or money market fund From a flexibility perspective and a value for money perspective, there's a clear rationale to hold money market funds, rather than platform cash or a fixed term deposit. Our Money Markets fund research paper that looks at 4 low cost money market funds sets out why Why does the fund structure make sense? Find out more in our CPD Webinar on Introduction to Collective Investment Schemes The illiquidity premium is the additional rewarded risk associated with holding an illiquid investment.
One of the attractions of private markets relative to public markets is the trade-off between enhanced returns and reduced liquidity, known as the “illiquidity premium”. Private market deals often require investors’ money to be “locked up” (i.e. non-realisable and cannot be withdrawn) for anything up to ten years. By way of compensation, investors’ should enjoy potentially much higher rates of return. In the chart, we contrast the long-term expected returns, and range of returns, for US private equity vs a proxy for public equity and US private debt vs a proxy for US corporate bonds. Whilst the potential for returns is clearly higher, the range of potential outcomes is much higher too, reflecting the higher risk-reward trade off. Contrasting public market and private market expected & variability of returns reflects their different characteristics, risks and opportunities. Request our Access to Private Markets white paper Register for our Introduction to Private Markets webinar [3 min read]
Private markets exposure is growing in terms of both assets and popularity and offers potential for “true active” returns. We explore why and how advisers get access to this trend. Why private markets are in demand Private markets – incorporating private equity, private debt (direct lending), private real estate, unlisted infrastructure, unlisted natural resources – are characterised by attributes traditionally at odds with retail investing. Opacity, illiquidity, lengthy lock-up periods to name a few, and for that reason have largely been the domain of the institutional investor. But the growth in volume of private market strategies has become hard to ignore, as have the increasingly eye-watering returns enjoyed by private market managers. Overall private market AUM has increased from US$2.7tr in 2010 to US$7.2tr in 2020 and is expected to grow to US$12.9tr by 2025[1], with the majority of this in private equity. How can advisers access private market trends for their clients? In our white paper, we explore:
Request our Access to Private Markets white paper Register for our Introduction to Private Markets webinar [1] Preqin estimates, 2021 [3 min read, open as pdf]
The active vs passive debate is nothing new: the first index fund was launched in 1976 to track the S&P 500. In 1991, Nobel prize winner, William Sharpe (of Sharpe ratio fame), wrote a paper on “The Arithmetic of Active” setting out some of the clichés articulated by active managers, and why, in his view, it’s a zero sum game. Definition terms is key Whenever the active vs passive debate kicks off it’s always important to define terms. If referring to an asset allocation process, we prefer the terms static and dynamic and that’s got nothing to do with the subject of this paper or the claims by index investors that “active” is a zero sum game. Nor does the “activeness” or otherwise of hedge funds. The zero-sum game allegation relates to security selection, typically in a long-only context and therefore most relevant to managers of portfolios of securities and/or retail funds. What the Sharpe paper says Broadly speaking the Sharpe paper argues that in a closed world of active managers (stock pickers within an asset class), where the opportunity set is the index, for every “star” manager buying and holding the best performing stocks, there is a “dog” manager to whom the worst performing stocks have been sold. In aggregate, over time, this means the combined performance of both managers is the same as the index less active fees. This makes it hard for active managers to persistently outperform the index over time, which is evidenced by the SPIVA study. On this basis, using a fund that delivers performance of the index less passive fees seems like a more efficient way to gain exposure to that opportunity set. What are the implications for fund pickers The SPIVA study shows that the ability of active managers to outperform an index persistently varies from market to market depending on the efficiency of that market. For example, US and Global Equity markets fewer managers manage to outperform. For UK and Emerging Markets, active managers achieve better results. The latest SPIVA scorecard can be found here. We are not against “true active”, but the “arithmetic” is stacked against traditional long-only retail managers when it comes to persistency of alpha. Incorporating an index based approach where markets are highly efficient, and or where the availability of “true active” managers is rare. How to identify “true active” is a topic for another day!
Last week, the US Senate passed a $1.2trillion infrastructure bill that now awaits a House vote as part of the "build back better" campaign, and another part of the "bazooka" post-COVID policy stimulus. Whilst there are plenty of infrastructure equity funds like INFR (iShares Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF) and WUTI (SPDR® MSCI World Utilities UCITS ETF) that benefit from infrastructure spend, for those not wanting to uprisk portfolio, we like GIN (SPDR® Morningstar Multi-Asset Global Infrastructure UCITS ETF) which invests in infrastructure equity and debt securities. Infrastructure & Utilities forms a core part of our Liquid Real Assets Index, for the inflation-protective qualities (tariff formulae typically pass through inflation). The "hybrid" nature of infrastructure - with both equity and bond like components is why we place it firmly in the Alternative Assets category. Helpfully this can be accessed in a highly iquid and (relatively) low-cost format, compared to higher cost, less transparent and potentially less liquid infrastructure funds. [10 min read, open as pdf]
[3 min read, open as pdf] Traditional indices weight companies based on their size. The resulting concentration risk and “the big get bigger” theory is a criticism levelled by many active managers who are critical of index investing.
Leaving aside the flaw in that argument (company's valuations determine their size in an index, not the other way round), it is important to remember that using traditional indices is a choice, not an obligation. One alternative weighting scheme is to weight each share within an index equally, regardless of the size of the company. Sounds simple? In a way, it is. But what’s interesting is understanding what an equal weight approach means from a diversification perspective, risk perspective and underlying factor-bias. The curious power of equal weight is why some equal weight strategies have seen significant inflows over the last 6-12 months. Register for our CPD event exploring this topic in more detail on Wed 23 June at 10.30am In this white paper, we revisit the core principles of inflation
[15 min read, open as pdf] |
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